As poll numbers drop, political experts predict tough road for Allen

U.S. Senate candidate Tom Allen: Campaign PhotoUPDATED

At this point last year, the U.S. Senate race between incumbent Susan Collins (R-Bangor) and challenger U.S. Rep. Tom Allen (D-Portland) was predicted to be a race to watch, with pundits deeming it as a key pick-up opportunity for the Democrats.

Three polls in recent weeks paint a different picture. Tuesday, Survey USA put Collins 16 points up. Last week, Rasmussen Reports had Collins 13 points up. A poll by Research 2000, commissioned by the Daily Kos blog, put Collins up by 19 points the week before.

The Rothenberg Political Report has placed the race in the “clear advantage for the incumbent party,” where it has been since last November, when it had moved from the “narrow advantage for the incumbent party” category.

Carol Andrews, spokeswoman for the Allen campaign, said these polls use unreliable methodology. The campaign does its own polling, which she said is accurate and shows the race to be closer.

“We have fresh internal numbers that are far contrary to either of those and to the Survey USA numbers,” Andrews said, referring to the Rasmussen polls. “We are on the move and feeling good about where we are – and that is not by any of the margins of the polls you cite.”

In their last Federal Elections Commission report, filed July 22, the Allen campaign receiving $5,000 in services in-kind from the National Committee for an Effective Congress for voter analysis. NCEC is an organization supporting progressive candidates with analysis, get-out-the-vote plans and media market analyses.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee saw things differently. Spokeswoman Hannah August said many voters aren’t paying attention, and only one debate has been held so far.

“Allen’s strong point is on the issues, and that’s where Allen can win the election,” August said of upcoming televised debates.

Jennifer Duffy, senior editor for the Cook Political Report, said that Allen has had one of the tougher jobs of the Senate challengers. In order to win, he needed to change voter opinion of the popular senator. “That’s not easy,” Duffy said. “She has a very well defined political persona. Voters believe that they know her… they are not going to believe any attack.”

Duffy said it is possible to see a change in numbers in the coming weeks. “New Englanders do tend to tune in a little bit later,” Duffy said. “They’re smart enough to enjoy their summers.”

The Cook Political Report has consistently put the race in the “leans Republican” category.

Nathan Gonzalez, political editor for the Rothenberg Political Report, agreed that at the beginning of the cycle, the race was viewed as a top race for the Democrats. “The polls have shown that voters in Maine like Susan Collins, and it’s proving to be a difficult race for Representative Allen,” Gonzalez said.

The Democrats’ strategy of “tying Bush around Susan Collins’ neck” isn’t working, Gonzalez said, although the same strategy has been used effectively in other states.

Gonzalez said Collins will likely win, but it won’t be by as wide of a gap that the polls predict. “We’re still following the race,” Gonzalez said, “but the numbers and polling don’t back up the concept that it’s a tossup.”

Duffy and Gonzalez both said Allen hasn’t done anything wrong. Democrats at the beginning of the year just underestimated how strong Collins is, Duffy said.

Chris Potholm, a political science professor at Bowdoin College, said that the Allen-Collins race has never been close. Potholm's commentary generally favors Republicans.

Possible events that could swing the race in Allen’s favor? Bush bombing Portland, Potholm said, or maybe an endorsement from Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

“The whole Allen strategy of saying she’s a Bush clone hasn’t taken hold, and isn’t believable,” Potholm said.

The war in Iraq waning out of people’s minds also hurt Allen, as it was a key point of attack on Collins.

“They’ve run out of options,” Potholm said.